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As cable TV and satellite TV hard drives proliferate an interesting consequence is developing. Originally TiVos were offered as a way to record favorite programs while people were away from the TV. Also, they enabled viewers to watch one program while recording another, so no one needed to miss any of their favorite shows because of programming conflicts. What is developing as a result of this versatile service is becoming a nightmare for advertisers. TV viewers can control the content of their programming through the use of the fast forward button. Major networks which depend upon advertisers for all their revenue are facing the fact that their viewers are no longer forced to sit through 15 to 20 minutes or more of advertising every hour. A press of a button compresses 20 minutes of advertising to 20 seconds.
While commercials are a good time for bathroom breaks when needed, the majority of the viewing public still sits through most advertising. The only way to avoid losing 25% to 30% of your viewing time to ads is to pay for premium channels like HBO and Showtime. But with TiVo, network TV can be as ad free as you want it to be. For busy or impatient people the option to fast forward is irresistible.
What does this mean for the future of free TV? When the cost of reaching customers races past one million dollars per minute, can companies afford to get less and less ad viewing for their buck? While some people enjoy watching commercials (especially those on Super Bowl Sunday), as a general rule, most people (at least those I know) consider commercials a nuisance or a waste of time. For a while the networks will be able to increase revenues with price per ad increases. Eventually this will have a negative impact since only the biggest corporations will be able to afford the price.
My prediction is that TiVo will spell the death of free TV within a decade. Those connected to the tube by cable or satellite have already kissed the days of free TV goodbye. Those in rural areas will be forced to hook up to one box or another, or face the reality of snowy encrypted TV. Free network TV will go the way free satellite TV did in the 1970’s.
Bob Parmelee parmsplace
February 4th, 2008 at 10:20 am
IMO the Super Bowl commercials this year sucked. Didn’t think ETrade’s barfing baby was funny, although after a day that’s the only one I remember. Too bad for me. I agree with the fast forwarding of commercials – or at least having the option. I don’t agree with free TV going away. Local merchants and their customers will bear the cost of the deprecation of free TV, a catch 22. I would say the next big advertising boon will be companies that advertise through your cellphone, iphone, ipod, etc.- in fact it’s already begun. These are targeted ads that are content-controlled by the end-user. Ads that are only about power tools, or lingerie (or both), what a concept.